Israel's Election Deadlock: What It Means for the US

29 Oct 2026 · @Donovan Reynolds

Israel went to the polls on 27 October and, two days later, nobody has won. Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc is the largest, but it sits eight seats short of a majority. His challenger, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, can only claim a majority by counting Arab parties that his own allies are wary of.

This matters well beyond Israel. Washington's closest Middle East ally now faces weeks of coalition bargaining, a caretaker government and possibly another election, just as the US weighs its next moves on Iran and Gaza. We look at the numbers, why they add up to deadlock, and what it means for the Israel–US relationship.

The numbers: 53, 48 and a record 19

With about 90% of votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 of the Knesset's 120 seats, Eisenkot's bloc 48, and Arab-led parties 19. A government needs 61. The remaining double-envelope ballots, cast by soldiers, prisoners and diplomats, were being counted overnight and could still move a seat or two.

Party	Leader	Seats	Change
Likud	Benjamin Netanyahu	26	−6
Yashar	Gadi Eisenkot	21	New
Joint List	Yousef Jabareen	12	+7
Together	Naftali Bennett	12	−12
Democrats	Yair Golan	8	+4
Yisrael Beiteinu	Avigdor Liberman	7	+1
Ra'am	Mansour Abbas	7	+2
United Torah Judaism	Ya'akov Asher	7	0
Otzma Yehudit	Itamar Ben-Gvir	7	0
Shas	Aryeh Deri	7	−4
Religious Zionism	Bezalel Smotrich	6	−1

Partial results as of 28 October (Wikipedia, Haaretz).

The story of the night was turnout among Arab citizens. Their parties are on course for 19 seats, the most in Israel's history. Likud remains the largest single party but lost six seats.

Why nobody can govern

The arithmetic is simple; the politics are not. Three obstacles stand in the way of any 61-seat government.

• The Arab parties question. Counting Ra'am and the Joint List, the anti-Netanyahu side reaches 67 seats. Democrats leader Yair Golan says that means Netanyahu lost. But some within Eisenkot's camp are uneasy about relying on Arab parties, and Netanyahu has campaigned hard against any government that depends on them.
• No grand coalition. Eisenkot has ruled out serving under Netanyahu, even in a rotation deal, which shuts the obvious unity option.
• A disputed result. Likud has claimed the election was "stolen" by Arab parties and called for an investigation. Whatever comes of that, the claim raises the temperature of coalition talks.

President Isaac Herzog has said Israel must do everything possible to avoid another round of voting. Whether the parties listen is another matter.

What it means for Israel–US relations

The short answer: uncertainty in Jerusalem, at an awkward moment for Washington. Reuters notes the relationship has been dominated by the joint confrontation with Iran, stalled Gaza peace efforts and signs that American public support for Israel is eroding. A deadlocked Knesset touches all three.

Trump has put his name on Netanyahu. After weeks of hesitation, President Trump endorsed Netanyahu days before the vote and hinted that his defeat would have consequences for the relationship. Since the results, he has called the outcome a "big come-from-behind stalemate" and claimed his endorsement made a big difference. Asked whether he would help broker a Netanyahu-led unity government, he said he had not thought about it but would take a look.

Not all of Washington agrees. Axios reports that many of Trump's closest advisers opposed the endorsement, and that Vice President Vance declined to echo it amid growing hostility to Netanyahu in parts of the MAGA movement. Some advisers reportedly see opportunity in a government led by someone else, since any new Israeli leader would have every incentive to court Trump.

Iran is the big variable. Trump has signalled the US and Israel could restart strikes on Iran after the US midterms. Some critics, including in Israel, suggest a caretaker Netanyahu might see renewed conflict as a way to shore up his position. A former US intelligence official told Reuters that any Israeli government would likely back Trump if he escalated. In other words, on Iran the result may change the timing more than the direction.

Three ways this could go:

Outcome	What it likely means for the US
Netanyahu forms a government	Continuity and a close personal bond with Trump; but reliance on far-right partners Ben-Gvir and Smotrich could complicate US goals on Gaza and regional normalisation.
Eisenkot forms a government	A new face, with a long record of working with the US military; but a coalition leaning on Arab parties would be untested, and Trump openly backed his rival.
Stalemate and another election	Netanyahu stays on as caretaker for months; Washington faces prolonged uncertainty while decisions on Iran and Gaza loom.

The American domestic angle. Israel, Gaza and the Iran war have all featured in the US midterm campaign, and both parties have shown a rooting interest in Israel's result. How the coalition talks play out could feed straight back into American politics.

For readers in Jamaica, the Caribbean and the UK, the stakes are less direct but real. A new round of US–Israeli action against Iran would ripple through energy prices, shipping and global attention, at a time when our region is still pressing Washington for help after Hurricane Melissa.

What happens next

1. By 30 October: the final vote tally, including soldiers' ballots.
2. 4 November: official results published.
3. Next week onwards: President Herzog consults every party, then hands one leader the mandate to try to form a government. He has asked them all to come with an open mind.
4. Weeks of bargaining: Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister throughout.
5. If no one reaches 61: Israel could be heading for yet another election.

Israel has been here before, with five elections between 2019 and 2022. The question now is whether a war-weary country can avoid a sixth trip to the polls in seven years, and how long Washington is prepared to wait for an answer.

Sources

• Haaretz: live election updates
• Jerusalem Post: Netanyahu bloc holds lead
• Jerusalem Post: Netanyahu bloc wins 53 seats
• Wikipedia: 2026 Israeli legislative election
• CNN: what happens now
• TIME: Israel awaits final results
• Reuters via US News: what's at stake for Trump
• Axios: weeks of political wrangling
• Axios: Trump advisers see opportunity beyond Netanyahu
• JNS: America and Israel's stalemate election